War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".